Thursday, July 28, 2011

Links between supply, demand and the price of oil


Oil consumption depends on the price of a barrel of crude. It speaks of elasticity of demand in oil prices . The figures vary according to the sources:

a negative correlation of 1 / 25, that is to say that demand would fall by 1% if the barrel increased by 25%. Given the current trend, we should be able to verify quickly that statistic, though the emergence of China and of India could distort the results;
a $ 10 increase in oil prices would translate into 0.3 points of growth within the next year (I do not know if it is an absolute or relative, if it is absolute, with $ 70 the price per barrel between 2007 and 2008, the recession is just around the nose ...)
an increase of € 10 on the price per barrel would result in an increase of € 0.1 on the price of a liter of fuel at the pump.

The psychological factor also plays a role. In France, nearly a quarter of the population is willing to reduce car use for a fuel price exceeds € 1.50 / L. We are in the thick of it, we will have to begin. In the United States, would be the psychological threshold of $ 3 / gallon, or 0.6 € / L. Play it in the same category ...

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