Thursday, July 28, 2011

Links between supply, demand and the price of oil


Oil consumption depends on the price of a barrel of crude. It speaks of elasticity of demand in oil prices . The figures vary according to the sources:

a negative correlation of 1 / 25, that is to say that demand would fall by 1% if the barrel increased by 25%. Given the current trend, we should be able to verify quickly that statistic, though the emergence of China and of India could distort the results;
a $ 10 increase in oil prices would translate into 0.3 points of growth within the next year (I do not know if it is an absolute or relative, if it is absolute, with $ 70 the price per barrel between 2007 and 2008, the recession is just around the nose ...)
an increase of € 10 on the price per barrel would result in an increase of € 0.1 on the price of a liter of fuel at the pump.

The psychological factor also plays a role. In France, nearly a quarter of the population is willing to reduce car use for a fuel price exceeds € 1.50 / L. We are in the thick of it, we will have to begin. In the United States, would be the psychological threshold of $ 3 / gallon, or 0.6 € / L. Play it in the same category ...
Read MoreLinks between supply, demand and the price of oil

Lack of alternative comparable


The comparable alternatives to oil are scarce. Those with the greatest potential can not substitute for oil as a desire or a need to break with the traditions from oil. This is why biofuels are widely promoted by oil companies: they allow them to maintain control over distribution networks, and a view of the use, biofuels are only one evolution technology. They do not change consumer behavior, and that is what those who want to master the distribution network. 

We will discuss the hydrogen in the same kind of problem distribution (and production, as the ' Hydrogen is an energy carrier, alongside electricity, not an energy source ).

Solutions for production and use of decentralized energy sources, if it can be a viable alternative, are not privileged because they involve a change of habit for suppliers and consumers. If now or in the near future the technology could offer us a new clean energy source and compatible with the uses and modes of current distribution, no doubt it would end unnecessary. But these energy sources do not exist: those who present themselves as such are only decoys touting qualities biased. He "only" generally analyze their filièrse a whole to realize that they are aberrations, or the conditions under which they might actually be (even) a credible alternative (and realize that these conditions are not met).
Read MoreLack of alternative comparable

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

The predictions of oil production for the coming decades vary


In parallel, the annual production for 2007 is estimated to 31.2 Gbl, which partly explains the tensions on oil prices: it has barely increased over 2006, or at least its increase was less than the increase in consumption. The countries of OPEC accounted for 41.9% of global oil production in 2007. More in the report of the DIREM on the world oil market .

The application is now structurally very similar to the offer, or even slightly higher. Some believe that world oil production is now reaching its peak. 

Other forecasts, such as the IEA (which, remember, represents the interests of energy consuming countries) say that global production could reach 116 Mbl / d in 2030. 

Meanwhile, total production is forecast to level off up to 100 Mbl / d by 2020. 

Dr. Sadad Al-Husseini, former president of Aramco (the national oil company Saudi) , notes that oil production begins to stagnate in many parts of oil, while others have already begun their decline. It is estimated that world production will not exceed 70 Mbl / d in 2030.

The United States alone still account for 25% of world oil consumption. But Asia represents the largest share (70%) of the increase in consumption (China alone accounts for half of the increase in Asian consumption).
Read MoreThe predictions of oil production for the coming decades vary

Inventory of world oil consumption


Between 1859 and 1968, humanity has consumed 200 billion barrels of oil. Today, it consumes more than 30 billion barrels per year (that is to say, 13 billion liters per day!).

Despite oil prices that is increasing world consumption of oil always follows a rise.

The global oil demand for 2007 is estimated by the IEA to 85.8 Mbl / d, 31.3 Gbl for the entire year: it Gbl 0.37 from 2006. For 2008, expected to reach 32 Gbl, an increase of 2.3% over 2007. However the forecast for 2008 is uncertain due to global economic conditions (recession due to among other subprime crisis ).
Read MoreInventory of world oil consumption

Monday, July 25, 2011

The many petroleum products

Crude oil, when refined, produces many products, for energy purposes or not. This specificity has allowed the parallel development of industry, transport and (petro) chemical. Technical progress and market development of these industries have created an ever increasing demand for oil. The various outlets are the source of this demand growth, which accelerated the development of transmission and distribution of oil. The end of this financial windfall variety of applications justified the huge investment required by the establishment of networks of mining, transport, processing, storage and distribution of petroleum products.
Read MoreThe many petroleum products

The high energy density of oil

Oil provides a large energy density. In other words, this means that low volume is a significant amount of energy. One kilogram of oil (oil type) is used to provide approximately 11.6 kWh of energy, about 10 kWh per liter. These are very high values.
Read MoreThe high energy density of oil

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Oil is a fluid

Oil is a liquid. It sounds stupid like that, yet it is an undeniable quality: more practical to extract, transport, storage and use, as opposed to a solid. A liquid is more convenient than a gas, particularly in regard to the problem of leakage and the behavior at room temperature. We can transfer it easily. Of course, these benefits are not unique to oil, they are valid for any energy carrier liquid.
Read MoreOil is a fluid

The advantages of oil


Oil is a chemical and energy resource that has accompanied and catalyzed the technological development of humanity. It is also a leading cause of major ecological disaster looming: the global warming . Yet despite its polluting, oil has advantageous features that make it an energy source of choice when not ready to guard its drawbacks.

Oil is an energy practice, which there are many possibilities, through physical and chemical characteristics extraordinary.
Read MoreThe advantages of oil

Friday, July 22, 2011

Oil Today


Oil remains one of the pillars of global economic system. The industrialized countries are highly dependent on consumers and the resource, they have rarely or in insufficient quantities in their territories. This mismatch between producers and consumers of oil resources is a source of geopolitical tensions that sometimes lead to armed conflict. Every industrialized country is seeking to satisfy his greedy in trying to secure oil supplies abroad. Recent history shows that some nations are prepared to having recourse to more extreme solutions for control of oil fields. And it's probably just the beginning: the consumption is increasing, and the arrival of Hubbert Peak (peak oil) is imminent. The emergence of newly industrialized countries (NICs) such as China and India maintain demand while supply is struggling to keep (some deposits are depleted or running low).

With demand will remain strong and has an offer that will tend to stagnate or even decline in the coming decades, the price of oil is expected to increase from current levels. Then it will tend to stabilize at a high price (very clever one who can predict the level of the award), along with a request that will stagnate. The rising price of oil makes some tracks technology - alternative to oil-field exploitation difficult - economically viable, and leads to a general rise in prices of other fossil fuels, for reasons still justified by (speculation) .
Read MoreOil Today

The oil shocks


In 1960, the main oil-producing countries are the OPEC to defend their interests and against oil prices on a downward trend. Today, the role of OPEC is still important in establishing the price of a barrel. 

The geopolitical situation in several oil producing regions evolves sometimes unstable, and in 1973 it was the first oil shock . In France, this period coincides with the strong development of the park power , decided only a few years earlier by President De Gaulle. In parallel, the actions of energy control are carried out (the cutting waste , and the establishment of the time change , which should help to reduce energy consumption). In 1979, the second oil shock . In 1982, the situation stabilizes again, and it is gradually entering a new era of "cheap oil". Many projects using alternative energy sources , launched during periods of oil shocks, will be stopped prematurely due to lack of economic competitiveness (plant solar and geothermal , etc.). Since the early 2000s, prices rising again. Most experts now think it's the end of cheap oil and that oil prices will be subject to a sustained rise. Some alternative technologies gradually revert to the mode ( wind , solar , wood energy and biomass ), by financial incentive mechanisms, and economic appeal against a barrel more expensive. 

In late 2007, the price of a barrel of Crude briefly surpassed the psychological threshold of $ 100. But today we talk about ending the era of cheap oil, not an oil crisis . It's all about action and choice semantics. The fact is that since March 2008, oil seems to remain above the $ 100 / bl. 
Read MoreThe oil shocks

Thursday, July 21, 2011

The abundance of oil

During the XX th century, the rapid development of chemistry (the 1930s), and the exponential growth of the automotive market (after the Second World War ), are caught in the oil capital importance in the global economic system. The oil offers certain advantages over its direct competitors ( fuelwood , charcoal , city gas ): a high energy density , transportation, storage and easy use, and plenty that makes it possible to have low cost. This abundance accompanies economic development 30 years after the war (the " thirty glorious years "). During this period, the issues of depletion of reserves and environmental issues are completely incidental or non-existent, unlike those of the energy dependence , which leads the industrialized countries to develop alternative pathways (in fact, only nuclear power is actually developed for strategic purposes - military, etc.).
Read MoreThe abundance of oil

To industrial use of oil


The Industrial Revolution led to the development of new products and new technologies. Towards the end of the Industrial Revolution (late XIX th century), the use of oil is still quite marginal, but interest in this resource is growing. 

In 1852, Abraham Gesner invented kerosene , an inexpensive and fuel good for lighting. In 1855, Benjamin Silliman , publish a list of the range of products that can be obtained by distillation of petroleum . 

Initially used mainly in raw form for lighting (in oil lamps ), the gradual increase in demand and the emergence the combustion engine drives the development of new forms of oil better. 

Therefore, it conducts research to locate the various oil fields , and conducted the first underground drilling in Germany in 1857. Two years later, it was the beginning of the black gold rush. 

The August 30, 1859, in Titusville, Pennsylvania, "Colonel" Edwin Drake drilled the first wells oil producer. This is the United States was born really the oil industry modern, already led by financial and indutriels looking for quick profit. From January 1870, John R. Rockefeller founded the Standard Oil and makes sure 95% of the world oil market. Production so concentrated in the United States to other countries swarms through the action of the oil companies U.S.. More information about the history of the oil industry here . 

The use of oil remains despite modest before the beginning of XX th century. Second, world oil consumption is exploding, supported by advances in chemistry (especially that of the petrochemical ) and development of the automotive market and the internal combustion engine . 

Even in the years 1930-1940, oil production is essentially American, it is only then that we discover the presence of large deposits in the Middle East.
Read MoreTo industrial use of oil

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

The beginnings of the use of oil


At the beginning of its use by humans, mainly came from oil deposits on the surface. Already in the ancient times it was used as a source of energy in the form of bitumen for waterproofing (including boats), and even as medicine. 

In the Middle Ages , the Byzantines and the Venetians have made homemade bombs filled with terra-cotta oil and saltpetre that were formidable weapons (the " Greek fire ", which were a nightmare for sailors).

However, at that time, the use of oil is still relatively localized. Only the surface deposits are exploited. Applications of oil remain marginal.
Read MoreThe beginnings of the use of oil

General information on oil

The oil is a liquid natural brown, more or less viscous. It is a mixture of hydrocarbons , compounds of carbon and to hydrogen only. Conventional oil contains other elements in varying proportions (usually around 15%). We can find traces of sulfur , of nitrogen , of oxygen , the metal ( iron , nickel ...) and the salt water .

The origin of the word comes from the Latin petra oleum (rock oil), because it was considered as such. 

Today, oil is everywhere: chemistry , energy , food. It has long been used by humans, but its dominance is relatively recent.
Read MoreGeneral information on oil

Monday, July 18, 2011

Only the price of a barrel can make a difference


Finally, one of the factors determining the conversion of our society "all oil" to another, the price of oil. By itself it synthesizes the voltage on the supply and demand, speculation in financial markets and oil companies, depletion, etc.. And it is clear that the era of cheap oil is over ... The following chart, which shows the change in the price of a barrel of oil (almost in real time ...) is quite revealing ...

After passing the $ 145 in July 2008, the price per barrel is gradually decreased to a more "natural" for this period (110-120 dollars if you follow the trend observed in recent years). It is likely that cepdendant continues to rise, with occasional oscillations (increases or decreases on fast enough). 

The financial crisis of autumn 2008, with his fears - probably justified - a recession for months (years? ) coming also pushes the price of oil. The consequence of a recession is a probable reduction in world consumption, the price per barrel unscrews so comparable to the indices ... After the strong artificial increase comes the sharp decline ... 
These are the same speculative reasons that explain the increases and excessive declines in the price of a barrel of oil ... This trend will reverse anyway in the coming months: in fact, it's not the price per barrel decline that is the amplitude of the oscillations increases ... This is a consequence of capitalism outrageous that lives only in (to) speculation. We hope that the current crisis makes it possible to do the cleaning in our parody of the economic system, and start on a sound basis (we can dream ...). Meanwhile, no change in the system is to be expected a gradual increase in oil prices, punctuated with jolts of high amplitude ...

Ultimately, it is likely that the price of oil caps, depending on various parameters including the volume of consumption and depletion of reserves: reserves are depleted, which imply higher prices and increased prices resulted in lower consumption ... A drop in consumption leads to lower prices ... 
very clever one that comes to anticipate the level of the ceiling, you can read anything and everything about it (proof that the economy n ' is not a science but an insignificant bunch of Game Statistics, which only serves to manipulate the markets ...). In this context, I can tell myself that the numbers are less reliable than others (they are based on a rule of thumb analysis of the statistical results of a scientific experiment of throwing darts), "ultimately, the price of a barrel of Oil will stabilize at a level 150 to $ 200, with an increased likelihood around $ 180. " That's it. All this will happen between 2020 and 2100, most likely around 2040.

But you do not have to believe me ...
Read MoreOnly the price of a barrel can make a difference

Oil, this energy source (but not only) that dominates our economy


The oil is a source of energy indispensable today. It is present everywhere as fuel , fuel and raw material sought for industry (petro) chemical and plastics industry .

However, this hegemony is relatively recent, since the use of oil for industrial purposes is the end of the XVIII th century, to really prevail during the XX th century with the rise of the automobile and chemical synthetic).

Oil and its uses have led to a rapid technological development during the XX th century, and many people who think that without oil, it would not have been the same. The fact is that oil was a source of hydrocarbons abundant, convenient and easily marketable. Number of its derivatives can now be synthesized from other natural resources, even renewable. But the chemical industry have long focused on oil and its derivatives , at the expense of " green chemistry "and renewable resources sectors that must now catch up after decades of neglect.

Industrial development was largely based on oil, mainly for practical reasons and market opportunity. Today we realize the consequences of that choice, and yet it is slow to implement the alternatives . Ill-will and a vision of short-term profits. It is true that it is difficult to counter the financial power of multinational oil companies that work almost openly with the despotic regimes that enjoy the presence of oil on their territory, and who are willing to defend their interests in large reinforcement of corruption, disinformation, and powerful political lobbies. 
In fact, the main disadvantage of oil is probably his incredible dominance in the global economy, the fact that it is so ingrained in our culture we imagine that industrial hardly do without. So much so that many believe that there is no alternative viable. The depletion , however, show that they exist, but this time it will be too late to do ... and other technologies and energy sources will not be virtuous gained ground: the economic power of large tankers allows them to influence policies and best wishes to impose solutions that settle at the expense of environmental protection.
Read MoreOil, this energy source (but not only) that dominates our economy