Maritime transport on oil tankers

The shipping of oil on board tankers (tankers and super tankers carrying up to 400,000 tons of crude oil), represents more than half of world maritime trade. One can imagine the consequences of oil shortage on commercial! (On others for that matter ...).

Initially the oil was transported aboard wooden casks (barrels). The barrel has remained the unit of exchange used. It is 159 L. Now tankers are designed as huge reservoirs, sometimes divided into several compartments to store oil of different characteristics (including density). So we can better manage the weight distribution on the ship.

Over the past 30 years, many maritime disasters involving super-tankers have been held. They have caused ecological and economic disasters along the coast affected by oil spills. Most of the cleanup costs and compensation were supported by local e local governments. The Coastal Cleanup is in turn often provided by volunteers.

Since then, new oil transport ships are equipped with double hulls, which are supposed to reduce disaster risks. But they do not prevent the practice of degassing, responsible for oil spill at sea ... The single-hulled tankers still represent the vast majority of the park. 

The gigantic size of the super-tankers creates monstrous consumption of fuel, but which are reasonable compared to their carrying capacity. Currently, more than 600 tankers with a tonnage greater than 200,000 tonnes in circulation.

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Conclusion on the processing of oil

The oil must undergo many changes to be exploitable in the context of a specific use. These transformations involve multiple energy consumption, little known today (no doubt the oil industry have information on this issue). In the end, the multitude of products can be used in various ways (fuel, fuel, petrochemical, plastics, etc.).. 

These byproducts are sometimes directly recyclable (gasoline, diesel, etc.). sometimes they will suffer from further processing to be usable, some are even-products, which have no real opportunities. 

The tendency is to a maximum value of by-products, and the proportion of products derived is relatively fixed, Indutries oil must seek additional outlets for products produced in over-quantity. For example, the French fleet dieselisation pushes the quantities of products for which we must be sure the application or to find new markets.

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Cracking and reforming

Cracking is to break the long hydrocarbon molecules into smaller molecules. This can be done by thermal process under high pressure, or catalytic (under high temperatures and in the presence of a compound that facilitates the chemical reaction). When hydrogen is involved, it is called hydrocracking, is when water is called steam cracking. 

The reforming to convert naphtha to produce gasoline or premium. 

There are other processes refining as isomerization, alkylation, etc. ... We can thus influence the characteristics of the products obtained (octane, color, odor, volatility ...).

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Distillation

Crude oil is first heated to 370 ° C. It then partially vaporizes and is carried out in a fractionating column (a kind of distillation tower). 

At the top of the column is recovered refinery gas used as fuel on site. It also recovers other petroleum gas such as butane and propane, gasoline and naphtha. The latter is the base compound of the petrochemical industry. Then recovered kerosene (used iFn aviation, the jet engines), diesel and heating oil. Further down the column is recovered residues, which are re-distilled under vacuum to provide heavy fuel oil, lubricants and bitumen. 

In order to obtain specific grades of gasoline (high octane) and reduce the content sulfur diesel fuels, we must also deal with products of distillation.

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Impact of changing technology

Without going into details, we can say that technological advances have enabled:

• to identify new oil fields;
• to exploit new deposits, where old technologies reached their limits;
• increase yields from operations (deposit more exploited, cost less, etc.).
• Technology has accompanied the rise in oil demand, but in recent years the number of discovered deposits has decreased substantially, suggesting that the "Hubbert Peak" is at hand.

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EOR - Enhanced Oil Recovery

When the reservoir pressure is insufficient, we proceed to the injection of fluid (s) to force oil to rise. These fluids may be gas (one of the deposit, or liquefied petroleum gas), or water.

Techniques more advanced (and more energy-intensive), such as thermal methods or fluid drive missible, allow to exploit the deposits difficult.

The thermal method involves heating the oil to the fluid (that is to say, reduce its viscosity). The heat comes from the injection of steam or underground combustion.

The fluid drive missible is performed using carbon dioxide or liquefied petroleum gas, lighter. Finally, chemical methods attempt to limit the capillary that holds the oil in the rocks. This is done using polymers or micro-emulsions of oil, water, alcohols and surfactants.

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Drilling for oil

After the drilling of one exploration well, designed to confirm the presence of oil and other wells are drilled to delineate the deposit. Most wells are drilled using a drill bit, a cutting tool on the end of a set of drill pipe supported by a metal tower called derrick. The drill bit is rotated. The drilling speed varies greatly depending on the nature of the rocks traversed. Of the "drilling mud" (a mixture of clay with water and chemicals) is continuously injected inside the stems. It goes back into the space between the rods and the walls of the well. The mud serves to cool the drill bit and remove the cuttings. Back on the surface, the slurry is filtered and reinjected into the well. Analysis of the debris can qualify the rocks traversed. 

Advances in drilling techniques now allow the completion of drilling small diameter boreholes deviated (obliques), horizontal multidrains, etc ... This progress has allowed the exploitation of deposits that were previously unprofitable, for technical reasons and / or economic. 

For offshore deposits (offshore), is generally used for pumping platform independent. Special ships can be used to exploit deposits of lower capacity.

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Exploration and prospecting for new oil fields

To find oil, we look for sedimentary basins where oil and gas have formed. Gas and oil then had the opportunity to migrate through porous rock capable of holding large quantities. 

In spite of modern tracking techniques (satellite imagery, geophysical, three-dimensional seismic surveys), the discovery of a new deposit is uncertain until the introduction of drilling. Only the latter can confirm the presence of the precious liquid.

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Autonomy of oil reserves

Considering that between 850 and 950 have been consumed Gbl today.

Often given an estimate of oil reserves equivalent to 40 to 60 years of world consumption today is to say slightly less in reality if we take into account the steady rise in consumption, mainly due to the emergence of newly industrialized countries such as China and India. However, the thin oil should lead to an increase in prices, which in turn should limit consumption to the profits of alternative energy sources, fossil fuels (coal, etc.), or renewable. All things considered, it is reasonable to think that we have about 50 years of oil. Remains to be seen at what price ...

It took a century for humanity to consume half of the oil, it will take more than a half to fully deplete the reserves.

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State of the World's Oil Reserves

A simplified figure and relatively speaking: a cube of 7 kilometers from the side, half empty (or half full, it depends), with a leak rate equivalent to the Rhone is the current state of reserves and world oil consumption.

Proven reserves are generally estimated at between 140 and 160 Gt, or 1,050 to 1,200 Gbl. But taking into account technological advances and a recovery rate above 30%, the reserves could reach 266 Gt (or 1'996 GBL). The truth is that the reserves are not well known, and that in addition to proven reserves, it is quite inappropriate to make hypothetical assumptions about the probable reserves and ultimate.

Fairly coarse (and varies according to findings nouvaux oilfields), proven reserves are geographically distributed as follows:

• 55-60% in the Middle East;
• 15-18% in North America;
• 7-8% in Central and South America;
• 6-7% in Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union;
• 6-8% in Africa;
• 3-5% in Asia and Oceania;
• 1-2% (!) In Western Europe;

I'll let you calculate how many tons or barrels this is by geographic area.

The countries of OPEC account for approximately 75-80% of total world proven reserves. Several sources say, however, that the state reserves of many countries been an overestimate: these optimistic data are primarily used to sit supremacy and economic influence of the major producing countries.

The rise in oil prices led to interest in deposits unconventional oil , such as oil sands, whose operation is known as energy-intensive, highly polluting, and catastrophic for the environment (despite some methods that allow to avoid the creation of open pits).

Global warming also affects some plan to use: the melting of arctic ice led some companies (such as Arctic Oil & Gas Corp) interest in the exploitation of hitherto inaccessible deposits.

Finally, the exploitation of new (types of) deposits appears to be the preferred track to generate more wealth to the detriment of the fight against global warming and more generally the protection of the environment. Or how to cut ever more ardently the branch on which we sit ...

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The " Hubbert Peak "

King Hubbert, a geologist, is the source of a predictive method that aims to determine when the production of an oil field reaches its peak. More generally, the term refers to the Hubbert Peak when the peak of world oil production is reached, the point at which global oil production begins to decline in a sustainable manner. It is difficult to predict when this phenomenon. The most pessimistic forecasts are between the 2005 and 2015, the most optimistic about 2040. ASPO (Association for the Study of the Peak Oil - the Association for the Study of Peak Oil), composed of experts in geology and ancient geological experts in oil exploration, said that the Hubbert Peak will reached in 2007 worldwide, in 2010 for the Middle East. Peak production is one thing, the increase in consumption is another. If the increase in demand is stronger than that of production, the price increases (the law of supply and demand). Although the price of oil is still largely controlled by the countries of OPEC, this trend will eventually be verified.

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Increased oil production

Improved extraction techniques used to exploit the oil resources that were not before. Economic conditions, including the increase in oil prices, can make the exploitation of certain deposits profitable. These two conditions, supported by a global oil consumption growing rapidly, allowing the increase in oil production. Deposits discovered in 20 or 30 years are not a lot of potential, and continue to operate essentially the old large deposits. The increase in proven oil reserves is therefore that much of probable and possible reserves become proved reserves. 

All this means that the ultimate reserves decreasing gradually and the reduction of reserves tends to s' speed.

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How to increase oil reserves

Since it takes millions or even tens of millions of years to the Earth to form the oil, we can not say that the reserves are extensible. 

If, however, proven reserves correspond to the known deposits that are recovered about 30%, this means that there are several possibilities to increase the proven reserves:

• the discovery of new deposits;
• technical progress, which can be used to exploit known deposits but not accessible;
• Oil prices: some known reserves are not exploited because they are not profitable in the current economic conditions, but may become so if the price of oil increases;
• share prices of oil companies, which is directly related to the reserves they claimed to own, and is therefore likely to be readjusted function economic imperatives of the moment.

The last two possibilities are purely economies or artificial. One thing is certain, if proved reserves are still increasing for some years, they will not rise forever, because the ultimate reserves are not infinite ...

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Oil reserves decline

Since about 1980, the annual consumption of oil exceeds the capacity of the deposits discovered each year, and no large deposits have been discovered since then. Moreover the oil-producing Middle East, operating in the vast majority of deposits that were discovered there are over 40 years. 

Since 1970, estimates of oil reserves are relatively stable: the rate of consumption time, we frequently felt the exhaustion of reserves to 30 years in the future. However, oil production increased during this period and continues to increase. Growing demand, improved extraction techniques, the rise in oil prices (which determines the profitability and therefore the exploitation of certain deposits or not) allow this increase in production.

We saw the discoveries of new deposits are below the annual consumption. In other words, the proven reserves increase because the probable and possible reserves are decreasing. But the ultimate reserves, they, clearly reduced since the early 1990s, and the pace is accelerating.

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The ultimate reserves of oil

Ultimate reserves represent the total oil reserves may still be used before the end of the oil era. Since the 1970s, they are estimated at the equivalent of about 30 to 40 years at the time of consumption. But with the sharp increase in consumption, the estimate has never been more true than today.

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The non-conventional oil

Some deposits are formed by oil denser, more viscous, such as oil shale, the extra-heavy crude, or tar sands. Their use is often difficult: there must be thin the oil before being able to extract it. Processes to make these types of oil used are numerous and very energy efficient. While some of these deposits are already exploited, the vast majority is unlikely to be that when the price of oil will be high enough to justify it. The reserves of unconventional oil usable (15% of total) are estimated at 600 billion barrels, equivalent to half of the proven resources.

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Future oil fields to discover

Some deposits are still unknown. Of course, it is difficult to predict the number and capabilities. The United States Geological Survey estimated the deposits to about 140 billion tons of crude oil, equivalent current proven reserves (which it can reasonably be regarded as optimistic as the ability of newly discovered deposits tends to decrease).

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The probable and possible reserves of oil

Today, on average only 30% of known deposits of oil is recoverable (this figure can vary greatly). This will probably increase the recovery rate by technical progress, or when economic conditions warrant. Probable reserves are reserves in known deposits that the odds of one day being exploited are at least 50%. Possible reserves are reserves in known deposits whose probability of being exploited one day is 10 to 50%. The development of drilling techniques and recovery, economic conditions are some probable and possible reserves are gradually proved reserves.

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The proven oil reserves

These are reservations that are made up of the known deposits, including oil at least 90% chance of being recovered. Clearly these are reserves that can happen to quantify, and that one is able to operate on technical and economic criteria. Different sources, such as BP Statistical Review, the United States Geological Survey, Oil and Gas Journal, give figures ranging from 1,000 to 1,265 billion barrels, from 140 to 180 billion tons.

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Assessment of oil reserves

The concept of oil reserves is often presented as an ambiguous term, which depends on the known deposits, the deposits to be discovered, technical progress and economic conditions. Of course, the quantification of reserves is subject to very high uncertainty, but it is reasonable to think that the famous " Hubbert Peak "will soon take place, but now we can say that the era of cheap oil is over .

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The oil reserves and depletion

The oil reserves are not infinite, far from it ... It still has a few decades at current rate of consumption, but it is urgent to switch to alternatives. The scarcity of oil will increase its prices, which leaves room for alternatives (if choosing the right ...). Apart from the urgent environmental and climate, how long can we still use massive source of energy?

The state of the world is uncertain, however, have considered that half of the reserves had been consumed (in a century). 

The very concept of "reserves" is poorly defined, it is called "proven" reserves, "probable" "final", etc.., and the ability of deposits currently in operation appears to be currently overvalued, for speculative purposes. 

This portends the rise of a powerful oil shock in the coming decades: the day will come when companies and oil states will no longer hide the truth. In the meantime, however, they shall make a maximum profit of oil resources, by locking access to alternative energy sources, while preparing to replace an energy dependence for another, in order to maintain their hegemony.

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Conclusion of World Oil Consumption

Oil reserves, although they are not well known, are reduced. At the same time, economic development and global population, a consequence of the globalization of markets, leads to exponential energy needs, and a world oil consumption following this trend.

In the absence of audiacieuses policies oil dependence and global warming, only a significant increase in oil prices could help stop the system. 

With major impacts on our civilization:

• impact on mobility ;
• impact on everyday products ( petrochemicals , plastics );
• development of local industries (energy, food production, industrial production);
• impact on the environment: less pollution and nuisance;
• impact on the cost of living: higher prices, especially for food and imported manufactured goods;
• impact on the consumer society: an economic model based on the consumption of disposable and ephemeral will no longer be viable;
• impact of technology: Technology should accompany this change in society and be a full evaluation to avoid problems related to implementation of technologies irrational a prior harmless.

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